Bloomberg: Unsurprisingly JPMorgan's Market Intelligence team say a dovish hold from the Federal Reserve would be “the best outcome," although just around half as probable as a hawkish hold:

"Their scenario analysis shows a 28% probability of the central bank keeping rates unchanged, while sounding accommodative on the inflation outlook. That would trigger gains of between 0.5% and 1% in the S&P 500."

"Their base case, with 50% odds, is for a hawkish hold, where the Fed warns about staying vigilant on inflation," which would see between a 0.25% gain and 0.5% loss.

A 25 basis point hike is a 20% probability they say which would see losses of 1.5% to 2%.

They see little chance (2%) of a 50 basis point hike or a cut.