Bloomberg: The Japanese yen will strengthen about 6% against the dollar by year-end following coordinated currency intervention, according to revised expectations from Bank of America Corp.
The yen is seen advancing to 149 per dollar from about 158 now, supported by joint action from the US and Japanese governments and the prospect of a Bank of Japan rate increase in coming months, analysts including Shusuke Yamada, Izumi Devalier and Tomonobu Yamashita wrote Wednesday. The bank previously forecast the yen at 152 at year-end.
“The intervention has raised the stakes for a successful defense of the yen, which likely requires follow-through from macroeconomic policies: specifically, faster rate hikes,” they wrote Wednesday. “Acting in September rather than waiting until October would provide the BOJ with an opportunity to demonstrate its determination to get ahead of upside inflation risks.”
“In the case of unilateral intervention to support a country’s own currency, the size of its foreign exchange reserves could be seen as the upper limit,” they wrote. “With US participation, however, the ultimate constraint on intervention has effectively been removed.”
