BCA: 58% of our clients expect Brent between $80 - $100/bbl at year-end 2026. Social media was more bearish.

We're in the majority camp, because both ends of this range are set by politics, not barrels. Tehran defends the floor: Brent near pre-conflict levels invites renewed attacks on Hormuz shipping. Washington defends the ceiling: prices that threaten domestic support push the US back to the table, especially before the midterms.

Anyone positioning outside $80 - $100 is implicitly forecasting one of those two constraints to break.