Goldman: We expect a 0.19% increase in July core CPI (vs. +0.2% consensus), corresponding to a year-over-year rate of +2.47% (vs. +2.5% consensus). We expect a 0.05% increase in headline CPI (vs. +0.1% consensus), reflecting lower energy prices. Our forecast is consistent with a larger 0.26% increase in core PCE in July, reflecting a large increase in its portfolio management component.

We highlight three key component-level trends we expect to see in the report. -First, we expect mixed autos inflation, reflecting a 0.5% increase in used car prices, a 0.1% increase in new car prices, and a 0.5% decline in the auto insurance category. -Second, we forecast benign readings for the shelter categories—a 0.23% increase in the OER category and a 0.16% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trends. -Third, we expect mixed travel services categories (airfares: +2.0%; hotels: -1.0%), reflecting signals from alternative price data.

Looking beyond July, we expect monthly core CPI increases of around 0.2% over the next couple of months, reflecting the continued slowdown in the shelter categories, shrinking contributions from tariff-related price increases, and the reversal of upward pressure on airfares from higher jet fuel prices, though risks are tilted to the upside if disruptions to oil markets and associated oil price increases prove more persistent than expected.