BCA: Three 25-year extremes. Which one breaks first?

We asked our clients to pick: US public debt at 100% of GDP, a dollar near 25-year highs, or profit margins three standard deviations above normal.

Clients split evenly between the dollar and margins (33% each), with 27% on debt. LinkedIn leaned margins (35%). X was the most dollar-focused (39%).

Our view is that all three are unsustainable, but margins are the most likely to go first. Three standard deviations above average carries a statistical probability below 0.5%, and an AI-driven earnings bubble could deflate within the year.