Bloomberg: Despite a few exceptions, a Fed chair’s speech at the symposium normally isn’t a big catalyst for stocks — unless it comes before a crucial shift in monetary policy. Since 2000, the S&P 500 Index has gained just 0.4% on average in the week following the gathering, data compiled by Bloomberg show. And options markets aren’t pricing in any fireworks this time either.... In the options market, traders are pricing in a one-day swing of only 0.6% in either direction for the S&P 500, according to Piper Sandler’s Daniel Kirsch, head of options for the brokerage.

“The bar is low, with traders not anticipating any groundbreaking changes to his policy views,” Kevin Flanagan, head of investment and fixed income strategy at WisdomTree, said by phone. “But a lack of forward guidance still leaves the market up to its own devices to interpret what he says, which leaves the risk of misinterpretation across Wall Street.”

Warsh “is likely to acknowledge the better recent inflation news but is unlikely to provide policy guidance,” Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists led by Jan Hatzius wrote in a note to clients on Tuesday, adding that they expect the Fed to keep rates steady in September and through the year-end. “The majority of participants and especially the majority of voters will feel even more strongly that it is appropriate to remain on hold after better inflation reports in June and July.”